Fourth Edition of the International Conference on Research in Applied Mathematics and Computer Science ICRAMCS 2022
 March 24-25-26, 2022
Online and Face-to-Face Conference

ICRAMCS, 4 (2022) | Proceedings ISSN: 2605-7700

Research Communication | Open Access
Volume 2022 | Communication ID 304
An ARIMA Model for Modeling and Forecasting the Dynamic of Univariate Time Series: The case of Moroccan Inflation Rate
Youness Jouilil, Driss Mentagui
Academic Editor: Youssef EL FOUTAYENI
Received
Accepted
Published
January 30, 2022
March 03, 2263
April 15, 2263

Abstract: The main aim of this research paper is to implement the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model ARIMA(p,d,q) [1], [2] to forecast the dynamic of the Moroccan inflation rate. To this end, we have used Box Jenkins approach [3] on historical information series. Empirical findings revealed that ARIMA's adapted specification is raised as an ARIMA (0,1,1) since its model provides better forecasting for our target process. This model could be utilized to forecast future inflation rates. Also, this result can be used by public decision-makers to better adapt their future decisions to the ...